The report of my death was an exaggeration -Mark Twain

That said we’re entering, and already in to a large degree, a period of market contraction for the imaging market.

You’ve got Canon and Nikon making big splashes with FF mirrorless offerings that to a degree shave off weight and bulk that otherwise aren’t possible with a traditional FF DSLR. You also will be seeing a price battle as those mirrorless offerings don’t cost as much to produce, look no further than Canons own EOS M50, which on a grey market sale is going for sub-$500 new, and the EOS M5, is available for $230 as a repair replacement, meaning it must cost at least that or less to produce. The 6D II is running $1200, new on sale, and a mirrorless version obviously would run even less than that, not to produce, but sell at a profit.

I bring up the size, weight and price of FF mirrorless, as I anticipate in the near future we’ll see FF mirrorless approach and match or exceed some premium crop prices, and weight/bulk. Take the Z6 vs Panasonic’s G9 for example; we’re already there in this example.

Now take another point of view, Panasonic is working on their FF mirrorless, Fuji has launched a medium format as has Hasselblad. Meanwhile multiple smartphone manufacturers are working on triple lens offerings with a dedicated low light lens and fake bokeh courtesy of computational advances which directly threatens even 1” offerings leaving Sony’s latest RX100 and Panasonic’s latest premium point and shoots to focus on telephoto, which can’t easily be done by a smartphone lens unless it’s huge by smartphone standards.

So with FF mirrorless pushing from above and smartphones from below, what’s the logical conclusion for crop offerings? Niche that will shrink. That’s the reality of what will happen.

That said, Canon already has a M5 successor planned Q4 last year (which is rumored Q1 this year), and has prior patents for faster zooms and DO telephoto offerings for the EOS M which they may be still considering as the M50 has proved the entry level crop mirrorless is a profitable niche for the moment. Likewise the hugely popular M100 could use DIGIC8 treatment still and based on Canon refresh cycles one is due in the next year or so. Like the Rebel series that is now frankly in the boat EOS M owners fear, the Rebel and EOS M series are quite capable as it stands if Canon didn’t do a thing for them what they’ve already planned to do and thrown money at already I gather. Then there’s all that EF glass that can still be adapted that will probably get more economical in the future.

Canon has a history of offering a product to everyone, as long as there is money in it, and as Fuji, Panasonic and Sony (Sony doesn’t make crop glass anymore, with a single recent blip) move on to larger formats, I can see Canon continuing to support it the longest. Yes, I can see in 3-4 years Canon May begin to sunset the M platform and Rebels, but I don’t see them retiring it ala the Nikon 1 series for some time.

Now would I buy an M or other crop right now? If it fit my needs, yes (and I did, but returned it for the R ironically). However as the EOS R / Nikon Z fits my needs better, folks like myself will move on. The EOS M for me was a holdover till Canon (or Nikon) did a real FF mirrorless, which they just did. Products like the PowerShot G series and EOS M series become a secondary choice for other reasons, but I’ve moved on as others will. As I said forces are pushing on both sides.

Market contraction must happen, and Canon sees this hence they decided to optimize the RF mount at the M’s expense, but I’d agree that’s the right move to counter Fuji and others medium format ambitions, rather than continue a 30 year old EF mount and watch money go sideways as they have with Sony eating their lunch lately; they aren’t going to repeat that mistake this round.

Sky isn’t falling, it’s just Canon doing the logical move, and the M has plenty of years left in it as PowerShot didn’t die off overnight, and in fact still persists courtesy of Canon where say the coolpix and Nikon 1 series have not... One can read the writing on the wall though just as a one can see the clouds forming: smaller formats have been contracting for some time and will continue to. Likewise, one can see the M still has new life coming for the moment as the latest EF-M 32mm has proved, and will have a relatively long life ahead of it, but yes, it’s on the decline in the (not immediate) future.